In order to make money sports betting football and basketball spreads, bettors must win 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 juice) in order to break even. However, if MLB bettors avoid big favorites and consistently take plus-money underdogs (+120, +150, +170) they can win at a sub-50% clip but still finish the year with positive units won.
In moneyline sports, such as baseball and hockey, historical data shows that picking underdogs is the best way to earn profits when investing in the sports marketplace. This may result in winning only 40%-50% of your selections, but the plus-money odds mean you’ll have positive units won despite a losing winning percentage .
The following formula can be used to calculate no margin, or "fair" odds: (Boston Red Sox odds - Tampa Bay Rays odds) / 2 = Boston Red Sox no margin odds. After converting the Boston Red Sox odds into "fair odds," we can work out the percentage chance of a -1.5 Run Line bet on them winning: (105 / 205) x 100 = 51%.
Start by adding the two probabilities together. In our example, we had 43.5% + 60% = 103.5%; 103.5%. From the 103.5%, the 3.5% is the estimated vig on this pair of odds (some books do adjust differently on favorites versus underdogs, but we do not need to go into that in detail at this point).
Getting Started 1. Open a specific bank account. To really make money on sports betting, you have to be dedicated, so it’s a good idea... 2. Create accounts with a few sportsbooks. In order to place bets, you have to have an account with at least one... 3. Learn to make smart bets. There are a ...
You'd have to put up $145 to win $100 if backing Boston, while a $100 bet on Tampa Bay would net you $125 in profits were they to win. Regarding converting it to a likely winning percentage, aka implied probability, a -145 price converts to the suggestion that Boston should win that game about 59% of the time.
Total return of $205. Implied probability: 100/205 = 48.8%. If we add together the implied probability that we found on both sides — 55.5 + 48.8 — we get a total of 104.3. One side is going to win while the other will lose in a coin flip scenario, so that works out to 50/50, or 100%.